• Using the Strategic Tool for Assessing Risks (STAR), authorities can better anticipate drought-related health emergencies, from malnutrition and waterborne diseases to heat stress and displacement.

Across Kenya’s arid and semi‑arid lands (ASALS), the ground tells a troubling story. Water pans crack and empty, livestock trek longer distances in search of pasture, and families wait anxiously for rains that no longer arrive as expected.

Drought, once a periodic hardship, now grips communities as a persistent reality intensified by climate change.

An estimated 3.3 million people across 23 counties currently face drought conditions, straining livelihoods, food systems, and public health. 

The crisis deepened when the 2025 short rains failed. Instead of replenishing water sources and pasture, most regions received only 30–60 percent of average rainfall. In eastern Kenya, the season ranked among the driest in decades.

Currently, Mandera County endures the “alarm” phase, where food insecurity, water scarcity, and livestock losses reach critical levels. Meanwhile, Wajir, Garissa, Kilifi, Marsabit, Kitui, Kwale, Kajiado, Isiolo, and Tana River remain in the “alert” phase, signalling conditions that could rapidly deteriorate without timely intervention. Even counties classified as “normal” show early signs of stress—drying water points, weakened livestock, and fragile soils.

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This fragile window between short and long rains heightens risk. Prolonged dry spells harden the soil, reducing its ability to absorb water when rains finally arrive. When rainfall does occur, it often runs off quickly, triggering floods instead of restoring moisture.

Climate change amplifies this destructive cycle. Rising temperatures accelerate evaporation, while rainfall grows erratic and unpredictable. Droughts last longer, and returning rains strike harder—washing away topsoil, homes, and livelihoods.

Recognising the public health threat, the World Health Organization partnered with Kenya’s Ministry of Health and the National Public Health Institute to map climate‑related risks in 2025. Using the Strategic Tool for Assessing Risks (STAR), authorities aim to anticipate emergencies ranging from malnutrition and waterborne diseases to heat stress and displacement.

Drought in Kenya is no longer just an environmental challenge—it is a humanitarian, economic, and public health crisis. As climate change tightens its grip, the task ahead is not only to respond to emergencies but to build resilience in communities living on the frontline of a warming world.

The Kenya Meteorological Department’s February 10–16 forecast offers a glimmer of relief, predicting rainfall in the Central Highlands, Lake Victoria Basin, Rift Valley, South‑eastern Lowlands, and Western Kenya. Yet for millions in the ASALs, the question remains: will these rains arrive in time to break the cycle, or will the land continue to tell its troubling story?

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